Do Chase Edmonds And Raheem Mostert Cancel Each Other Out?

If you’re playing a Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Dolphins vs. Bills DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Dolphins DFS considerations

Break up the Dolphins! Actually, that would be a crushing blow to #FinsUp fans everywhere . . . although not entirely unexpected, given Miami’s recent struggles. This franchise won at least five playoff games in each of its first three full decades of existence: the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. But they haven’t won a playoff game in the last 21 years. That’s quite a trajectory shift.

Now Miami has its best chance in years to not only win a postseason matchup, but go deep into the playoffs. And the next big test — one of the team’s two or three biggest this season — will be Sunday’s home tilt against the seemingly unstoppable Bills.

If the Dolphins had a clear No. 1 RB, we could make the case for starting him in DFS. Yet this appears to be a running-back-by-committee situation, with the 30-year-old Raheem Mostert slightly outperforming presumed preseason No. 1 Chase Edmonds. In fact, Mostert is one of only 12 RBs with 3+ broken tackles on rushing attempts, and his attempts-per-broken-tackle is fifth-best in the league.

Both of these teams can score in buckets, but Buffalo’s defense is unrivaled. So understanding Edmonds’ and Mostert’s realistic ceilings will help us determine whether to insert either into our lineup and, as a result, how much we should spend on Miami’s explosive passing attack.

Bills DFS considerations

If we invest heavily in Miami’s vaunted aerial weapons, then we’ll need to go relatively cheap with Buffalo. Given how useful low-priced guys like Jake Kumerow, Isaiah McKenzie, or even James Cook could be, we arguably have better options than if we tried to go cheap with Miami’s less-established tertiary players.

The biggest question will be whether we can afford both Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. As we witnessed Monday night, their chemistry might be unmatched, particularly when Gabe Davis sits. Because DFS salary caps often limit us to no more than three elite players, we’ll need to factor the upside of mid-priced guys like Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox versus going all in on the most expensive options and hoping to backfill with someone who won’t lay a goose egg.

Recommended DFS lineup

Every week I struggle to finalize one or two DFS lineups. This week, the Dolphins-Bills was one of them. So many combinations due to so much blow-up potential — and not just any potential. Each side has upper-echelon or best-in-class talent. How do we sit any of them?

I’ve decided to go with five elite-level producers and one flier. The returning Davis ($7,400 normally, $11,100 as Captain) goes in our Captain slot, joined by Allen ($12,200) and Diggs ($11,600). If instead we made Allen or Diggs or some other expensive footballer Captain, then we’d have to drop one of our other four elite-level players. So that’s a no-go as long as Davis doesn’t suffer a pre-game setback.

If he does have a setback, then Diggs would slide into the Captain slot, and Kumerow ($1,600) would replace Davis in the lineup. We’d then have some net savings that we could use on Jason Sanders ($3,800), in the belief that Buffalo’s defense could force Miami to settle for multiple first-half field goals.

OK, back to our preferred lineup. We have a (presumably) healthy Davis, Allen, and Diggs. Huzzah! Let’s also take that Bills D/ST I hinted at in the previous paragraph. Hard to argue with what they’ve done to the Rams and Titans. A couple of sacks and turnovers would be more than enough to deliver at their reasonable $4,400 price.

The final two spots go to Miami players. Tyreek Hill ($10,800) wouldn’t fit under the salary cap if we’re choosing the four previously mentioned Bills. While Jaylen Waddle ($10,200) would, I decided — while writing this sentence right here — to go with Tua Tagovailoa ($10,000). His two top receivers have comparable ceilings. Who knows which one will break one loose (or maybe neither will). While Tagovailoa has his work cut out for him, I believe he has the best shot at 16+ points.

The other Miami player is . . . Cedrick Wilson Jr., the team’s official No. 3 WR. If Wilson can’t go Sunday, and if rookie Erik Ezukanma is active, spend $200 on the rookie.

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