We are now two weeks into the 2022 fantasy football season and starting to get a better idea of what these teams are. Decisions will only get more difficult from here on out. Let’s take a look at our RB start/sit Week 3 plays.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (at TEN)
It’s been a very rough start to the season for Josh Jacobs’ fantasy managers. Looking purely at fantasy scoring, you may be tempted to bench him. Don’t.
Concerns of a split backfield should be put to rest. Zamir White played well in the preseason, but the fourth-round rookie is not a threat. He was only even on the field last week because Brandon Bolden was hurt. White played all of six snaps after not playing a single one in Week 1.
Meanwhile, Jacobs played 60% of the snaps in Week 1 and 72% in Week 2. He’s the clear lead back. Jacobs has carried the ball 29 times for a respectable 126 yards (4.3 yards per carry). Yes, it’s unfortunate he’s not being used more as a pass catcher with just two targets in two games, but he’s the primary rusher and goal-line back. His problem? He just hasn’t scored.
The Raiders have four offensive touchdowns this season. Derek Carr has thrown all of them. Simply put, that is not going to continue. Eventually, they will run some of them in. I’m banking on that starting this week.
The Titans were torched by Saquon Barkley in Week 1 but contained the Bills’ lackluster backs in Week 2. More importantly, they’ve allowed 56 points through two weeks.
The Raiders should have no trouble scoring. Jacobs is a good bet for 14-16 carries. And if they find themselves near the goal line, I like Jacobs to punch in a short touchdown, which would lock him in for RB2 numbers this week. Start him.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (vs. HOU)
Dare I say David Montgomery looked pretty good last week? It was a true nightmare matchup for the Bears’ running game as heavy road underdogs against the Packers. Yet, Montgomery was the lone bright spot.
Montgomery carried the ball 15 times for 122 yards. Those numbers are eerily similar to his lone start against the Texans in 2020 when he rushed for 113 yards on 11 carries.
Through two games, the Texans have allowed 326 rushing yards at a 4.7 ypc clip. Montgomery hasn’t found the end zone yet, but that’s mostly because the Bears’ offense has struggled. They played in a monsoon in Week 1 and then had no answer for the Packers’ defense in Week 2. This week, the Texans provide a much softer opponent.
Before the season, there were talks of a split backfield with Khalil Herbert. Well, Montgomery played 80% of the snaps in Week 2. And truthfully, it was even higher. Herbert didn’t really get involved until late in the fourth quarter when the Bears rested Montgomery because of the score.
The Bears are actually favored at home against the Texans. This is not a situation you will see often. They didn’t really care about the score when implementing a run-heavy approach while getting demolished by the Packers. This week, they can actually justify it in what should be a much more competitive game. Montgomery is firmly an RB2 this week.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots (vs. BAL)
In Week 1, the Patriots ran a three-man backfield with Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Ty Montgomery. That became a two-man backfield in Week 2. Yet, Harris’ snap share went from 39% to 40%. It remained exactly the same.
Harris did run well in Week 2, rattling off 71 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. He’s also caught two passes in each of his first two games. Last week, he scored a touchdown. That’s what it comes down to for Harris.
The Ravens have yet to allow a rushing score on the season. More importantly, they are incredibly vulnerable through the air. They just let Tua Tagovailoa throw for six touchdowns against them.
While the Patriots do not have the wide receiver talent the Dolphins have, Bill Belichick is smart enough to know the way to beat the Ravens is by attacking their injury-riddled secondary.
There’s always the chance Harris punches in a short touchdown. But unless he does that, I think he underperforms this week. Sit him if you can.
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (at TB)
I still love AJ Dillon this season. He should finish as a fantasy RB2 … just probably not this week.
Dillon played 57% of the snaps last week. He had three more carries than Aaron Jones and ran just three fewer routes. They are splitting this backfield. Last week was a Jones week. Does that mean this is a Dillon week? Not necessarily.
The Bucs held Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to a combined 60 yards on 16 carries in Week 1. In Week 2, Mark Ingram had an impressive 60 yards on 10 carries. The problem for Dillon is he will be splitting the rushing work with Jones. We want Dillon for the touchdowns.
The Packers are road underdogs against the Bucs. And the Bucs have allowed just 13 points this season.
Yes, the Packers are a better offense than the Cowboys and the Saints. However, they are not the juggernaut we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. They only scored 7 points in Week 1 against the Vikings and didn’t blow the cover off the Bears, scoring only three touchdowns.
Dillon’s volume should be there on the ground, but unless he’s catching passes or scoring touchdowns, he’s likely to underwhelm. The Bucs were a pass-funnel defense in 2021. Despite their first two games, I believe that is the recipe for beating them once again. As a result, I think we see more of Jones, and we don’t see Dillon in a positon to score a short touchdown, making him a sit for this week.