Should We Trust Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson, And J.D. McKissic?

If you’re playing a Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Commanders vs. Eagles DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Commanders DFS considerations

After years of trying to piece together an offense that can run, pass, and catch, Washington finally seems to have the right combination — or at the very least, its best combination in years. Week 3 should help us determine if the team’s impressive WR trio can be consistently fed all season. Meanwhile, Antonio Gibson has a little more time to prove he deserves to keep the starting RB job whenever the heroic Brian Robinson is able to return.

I remain fascinated with the boom-bust J.D. McKissic, whose 10 receptions are offset by poor rushing and zero red zone touches. Last year, he had four in his first four games. Of course, as long as Washington’s offense keeps humming along, they might not need McKissic as much in those high-leverage situations.

Eagles DFS considerations

What more can be said that this team hasn’t already shown through its first two games? Jalen Hurts had 31 fantasy points in the first half last week. If Philly’s defense hadn’t stepped up, he might have been forced to keep running/throwing, and 50 fantasy points would have been within reach.

It was also encouraging to see DeVonta Smith get going. As PFN readers know, he was one of my recommended Week 2 prop bets, as I highlighted that each of the last seven Super Bowl champions had three productive pass catchers. The Eagles were never going to phase him out. Instead, he’s a solid 1B to A.J. Brown’s 1A in this passing attack.

It was encouraging to see Miles Sanders running well. However, he’s always run well. The challenge is trusting him in DFS lineups knowing that he needs to score to make good on his relatively steep price. The cheaper Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott aren’t any more inspiring as long as they’re playing secondary and tertiary roles.

Recommended DFS lineup

Right off the bat, I’m looking to save funds so I can stock up on the Eagles’ top playmakers, in the belief Philly will score more touchdowns than Washington. So I’m picking three mid-range players with some pop: McKissic ($5,400), Jahan Dotson ($6,400), and Kenneth Gainwell ($4,800).

Yes, I get it. All three could be busts. McKissic and Gainwell need to make the most of the handful of touches they get. But if we believe in Philly’s offense, I’m not comfortable with any DFS lineup that doesn’t include the following three players.

And who are those players? Glad you asked, and I’m betting you know the answers. First, Jalen Hurts ($12,800). We can’t afford to put him in the Captain slot unless we believe he’ll get another 30+ points. I’m not ready to bet on that for Sunday. And Brown ($10,600) — his 1A receiver — cannot be left out. An 8-110-1 receiving line seems realistic against a defense facing its toughest test of the young season.

Our final slot — the Captain slot — goes to Smith ($6,600 normally, $9,900 as Captain). Every week I’ll write pretty much the same thing about this 2021 early first-round draft pick. Smith can be a 1,000-yard receiver playing alongside Brown, and possibly someday a 1,200-yard receiver. Although he hasn’t yet mirrored Brown’s boom, his days as a frequent DFS bust are probably coming to a close.

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