What’s The Deal With Derrick Henry?

If you’re playing a Tennessee Titans vs. Las Vegas Raiders DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Recommended Titans vs. Raiders DFS lineup

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.

Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.

Titans DFS considerations

While the Madrigal family refuses to talk about Bruno, we have to discuss Derrick Henry. His yards before contact are down only 0.3 yards per rushing attempt compared to last year, but his yards after contact are down 0.8 yards.

In his last five games dating back to last season, Henry’s averaged less than 3.0 yards per carry while scoring twice. In his five games before that, he rattled off five straight 100+ yard rushing performances while scoring 10 times.

When we combine a longtime elite RB who might not be elite anymore with a receiving corps whose top two weapons are still (possibly) showing the effects of last year’s season-ending injuries (although Treylon Burks certainly is developing), we can understand the hesitation of betting on any Titan.

Confronting a brutal midseason schedule (Colts twice, Chiefs, Broncos, Packers, Bengals, and Eagles), this is a win-or-uh-oh situation for last season’s AFC No. 1 seed. We should expect to see more life from this unit, as desperation takes hold.

Raiders DFS considerations

How does an 0-2 team recover after blowing a 20-0 lead at home? We’re about to find out. With the Broncos and Chiefs on deck, it’s fair to say that the Raiders have a tight 2-3 week window to demonstrate they can still compete for the postseason. In other words, this is a must-win game for them and Tennessee, and it’s only Week 3.

We should consider that Mack Hollins was their leading receiver this past Sunday, while Davante Adams collected only 12 yards on two catches. That’s not a recipe for long-term success, and it’s not why the Raiders acquired one of the greatest receivers of the past decade. I’m expecting Adams to lead all players on Sunday in receptions, yards, and possibly touchdowns.

Recommended DFS lineup

Betting on underperforming elite players is one of my favorite pastimes. Adams went from a 46% target share in Week 1 to 18% last weekend. His sweet spot this season should be somewhere in the middle, probably in the 26%-32% range. I’m eyeing at least 10 targets against a beatable Tennesse pass defense, especially with Hunter Renfrow banged up and the 0-2 Raiders facing (pretty much) a must-win situation.

Therefore, Adams ($12,000 normally, $18,000 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. It’s a steep and necessary investment for one of two players with the best odds to lead all fantasy producers in this contest. I’m also recommending the hit-or-miss Hollins ($4,800) because if he hits, he’ll be more than worth the price. Treylon Burks ($6,800) also is a must-add as Ryan Tannehill’s presumed No. 1 receiver. And let’s go all in on Henry (yes, Derrick Henry) on the assumption that the 0-2 Titans will run him into the ground if needed. He’s priced at “only” $11,200.

We’re spending $8,400 of our remaining $9,200 on Josh Jacobs. Why? He hasn’t scored yet and has caught only two balls. In 50/50 lineups, this would be a great hedge. And in tournament play, it could still work, as this is the same Titans defense that yielded more than 9.0 yards per carry to Saquon Barkley in Week 1 — even though it was evident at the opening kickoff that the Giants’ best path to victory was on the ground. I’m betting on Jacobs to get his first score, making him a strong play even at $8,400.

With our final $800, I’m recommending the TD-dependent Foster Moreau. He could be the No. 4 or No. 5 target on Sunday. Because this is such a top-heavy lineup, this final spot has to be a dart throw — albeit a decent dart throw.

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